An analysis of variations in the annual inventory of beef cows and heifers at the regional level in New South Wales using Just's adaptive risk model is reported. The State has been divided into six relatively homogeneous regions for the purposes of the study. Wherever significant coefficient...

Risk is often perceived by farmers as being more formidable in new technologies emanating from agricultural research than in more traditional practices. Consequently risk may tend to act as an impediment to adoption of improved practices as well as a general friction on efficient use of...

Single-index models from portfolio theory have previously been adapted for risk efficient farm planning in North America. The potential for using single-index models in farm planning is considered in this paper both theoretically and in the light of two illustrative Australian case studies. It...

An outline and appraisal is given of Bernoullian decision theory with a view to its potential use in agricultural contexts, both on and off the farm. Despite the existence of a variety of difficulties and unresolved problems, it is argued that Bernoulli's Principle--because of its recognition of...

This study strengthens the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance which producers attach to different risk management strategies in New Zealand's deregulated farming environment. A nationwide survey covering eight farm types was conducted. As range of production,...

A simulation technique is advanced as a means of determining the probability of achieving various possible financial outcomes when assessing alternative investments. To this end a model is constructed and applied to a proposed investment in pasture improvement. Results are contrasted with a...

Farming is a high risk business because of the inherent variability of the natural environment in which it is placed and the markets in which its products are sold. Farmers have learned to cope with variability and have adopted management strategies which decrease risk to the farm firm. This...

Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen...

A model is developed from decision theory for evaluating probabilistic information, especially for decision makers who are risk averse. The value of information to such a decision maker is disaggregated into mean and variance effects. It is shown that the degree of risk aversion of the decision...