This paper examines the notion of « equilibrium rate of unemployment » (ERU). An « asymmetric » wage-price setting based on a wage Phillips curve and on a price equation in level leads to a clear distinction between medium and long run ERU, as to a kind of reconciliation between WS/PS and...

In this study, we propose a quantitative evaluation on employment of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers with the macroeconomic model of the OFCE emod.fr. We evaluate that this measure creates 500,000 jobs after five years, but induces a cost to public finances. If we were to fund ex post...

In the context of a still high unemployment rate, the recurring debate around the Social security deficits calls for an enlargement of the way growing needs could be financed. A solution that has recently been contemplated would lie in the introduction of a new contribution on the value-added...

We propose a model and its econometric estimation, representing the housing channel of monetary policy. Econometrics are robusts over time and space, lead to sound effects and allows measurement of different sensitivity of countries to a change of interest rates. According to our estimations,...

From 1997 to 2001, the French unemployment rate fell by around 4 points. We show it can reach 5 % in 2005 under favorable but realistic assumptions. Lower interest rates could imply a higher investment rate, which would however remain under its level in the 60s. This would allow a 1.1 point fall...

Using a standard state-space model with a reduced Phillips equation, we propose a model with better dynamics and explicit separation of NAIRU and structural unemployment. This model requires the use of a Kalman filter. Under reasonable assumptions on the innovations to the NAIRU equation, our...