This paper studies the feasibility of a monetary union in Mercosur. A semi-structural VAR model is estimated for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. The structural innovations generated by each country model are broken down into unobservable common and...

After an exceptionally long period of growth on the housing market, the activity has turned over from the beginning of 2006. It seems deeply engaged in a severe adjustment but we suppose this will not lead the economy in a global recession. After a presentation of the past trends (activity,...

Based on the theoretical literature on currency crisis, this paper analyses the heritage of F.H.Cardoso?'s two mandates. Hyper-inflation has been defeated. But recent Asian and Russian crisis have brought about the collapse of the currency peg and a huge depreciation. After a fast recovery, the...

World imports of goods rose by almost 10% in real terms in 2006 under rapid output growth notably in emerging economies. World imports will grow by around 8% in 2007 and 2008 less rapidly in industrial countries (7% per year), than in emerging economies, and first of all China (15% per year)....