This paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non-linear models, including smooth transition regression models,...

Knowledge generated using data mining techniques is of great interest for organizations, as it facilitates tactical and strategic decision making, generating a competitive advantage. In the special case of credit granting organizations, it is important to clearly define rejection/approval...

In this study, we use Neural Networks (NNs) to price American put options. We propose two NN models-a simple one and a more complex one-and we discuss the performance of two NN models with the Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. This study relies on American put option market prices, for...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

Under the impact of both increasing credit pressure and low economic returns characterizing developed countries, investment levels have decreased over recent years. Moreover, the recent turbulence caused by the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated the latter process. Within this scenario, we consider...

This article describes the techniques employed in the production of a synthetic dataset of driver telematics emulated from a similar real insurance dataset. The synthetic dataset generated has 100,000 policies that included observations regarding driver's claims experience, together with...

In the present paper, we study quantile risk measures and their domain. Our starting point is that, for a probability measure Q on the open unit interval and a wide class L Q of random variables, we define the quantile risk measure ϱ Q as the map that integrates the quantile function of a...

This paper presents the first methodological proposal of estimation of the VaR. Our approach is dynamic and calibrated to market extreme scenarios, incorporating the need of regulators and financial institutions in more sensitive risk measures. We also propose a simple backtesting methodology by...

In this paper, we test the efficiency of least-squares Monte Carlo method to estimate capital requirements in life insurance. We choose a simplified Gaussian evaluation framework where closed-form formulas are available and allow us to obtain solid benchmarks. Extensive numerical experiments...

This paper develops an approach based on Gram-Charlier-like expansions for modeling financial series to take in due account features such as leptokurtosis. A Gram-Charlier-like expansion adjusts the moments of interest of a given distribution via its own orthogonal polynomials. This approach,...