In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

This note revisits the ideas of the so-called semiparametric methods that we consider to be very useful when applying machine learning in insurance. To this aim, we first recall the main essence of semiparametrics like the mixing of global and local estimation and the combining of explicit...