The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak has severely affected the global economy. The ultimate scale of the recession is yet to be determined, but it is likely to be the most dramatic slump sinceWorldWar II. The impact of the crisis on the financial sector, especially consumer...

We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering...

After the financial crisis, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has established tighter standards around the definition of default (Capital Requirements Regulation CRR Article 178, EBA/GL/2017/16) to increase the degree of comparability and consistency in credit risk measurement and capital...

This paper uses three methodologies for measuring the existence of systemic risk in the Colombian banking system. The determination of its existence is based on implementing three systemic risk measures widely referenced in academic works after the subprime crisis, known as CoVaR, MES and SRISK....

In this paper, we use a logit model to predict the probability of default for Korean shipping companies. We explore numerous financial ratios to find predictors of a shipping firm’s failure and construct four default prediction models. The results suggest that a model with industry specific...

The aim of this study was to examine the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) measures on credit ratings given to non-financial institutions by the largest credit rating agencies according to economic sector divisions. The hypotheses were as follows: a strong negative impact on...

The aggregation of individual risks into total risk using a weighting variable multiplied by two ratio variables representing incidence and intensity is an important task for risk professionals. For example, expected loss (EL) of a loan is the product of exposure at default (EAD), probability of...

The research aims to verify whether the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises can be estimated more accurately using qualitative variables together with financial information from reports. In our paper, we select qualitative variables within the conceptual framework of the balanced...

This paper discusses ambiguity in the context of single-name credit risk. We focus on uncertainty in the default intensity but also discuss uncertainty in the recovery in a fractional recovery of the market value. This approach is a first step towards integrating uncertainty in credit-risky term...

Contingent Convertible (CoCo) is a hybrid debt issued by banks with a specific feature forcing its conversion to equity in the event of the bank’s financial distress. CoCo carries two major risks: the risk of default, which threatens any type of debt instrument, plus the exclusive risk of...