Much of the debate around a potential British exit (Brexit) from the European Union has centred on the potential macroeconomic impact. In this paper, we instead focus on understanding market expectations for price action around the Brexit referendum date. Extracting implied distributions from...

Recent crises in the financial industry have shown weaknesses in the modeling of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs). Relatively minor model changes may lead to substantial changes in the RWA numbers. Similar problems are encountered in the Value-at-Risk (VaR)-aggregation of risks. In this article, we...

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for...

The Munich chain-ladder method for claims reserving was introduced by Quarg and Mack on an axiomatic basis. We analyze these axioms, and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder method which is based on an explicit stochastic model. This stochastic model then allows us to consider claims...

We compare parametric and machine learning techniques (namely: Neural Networks) for in-sample modeling of the yield curve of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). To such aim, we applied the Dynamic De Rezende-Ferreira five-factor model with time-varying decay...

Stock trading has tremendous importance not just as a profession but also as an income source for individuals. Many investment account holders use the appreciation of their portfolio (as a combination of stocks or indexes) as income for their retirement years, mostly betting on stocks or indexes...

Rational small business management necessitates the development of a system for recording important internal information. Companies are obliged to collect statistical data that mainly serves fiscal needs. Exemplary use of such significant data entails financial liquidity (LIQt) and debt recovery...

The risk-based capital (RBC) ratio, an insurance company's financial soundness system, evaluates the capital adequacy needed to withstand unexpected losses. Therefore, continuous institutional improvement has been made to monitor the financial solvency of companies and protect consumers' rights,...

This study on explaining aggregated recovery rates (ARR) is based on the largest existing loss and recovery database for commercial loans provided by Global Credit Data, which includes defaults from 5 continents and over 120 countries. The dependence of monthly ARR from bank loans on various...

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve...