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The impact of sovereign yield curve differentials on value-at-risk forecasts for foreign exchange rates
Fink, Holger Maria; Fuest, Andreas; Port, Henry - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 3, pp. 1-19
A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model … August 2005–30 September 2016. As a benchmark, we take an ARMA-GARCH and an ARMAX-GARCHX with the 2y-yield difference as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890808
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Assessing financial stability in turbulent times : a study of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-type Value-at-Risk model performance in Thailand's transport...
Danai Likitratcharoen; Lucksuda Suwannamalik - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 3, pp. 1-19
of VaR approaches. This study critically evaluates the efficacy of GARCH-type VaR models within the transportation sector … GARCH-type VaR models include GARCH (1,1) VaR, ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) VaR, GARCH (1,1)-M VaR, IGARCH (1,1) VaR, EWMA VaR … surpasses GARCH-type VaR models in failure rate accuracy. Within the GARCH-type category, the EWMA VaR model exhibited superior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497424
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An academic response to Basel 3.5
Embrechts, Paul; Puccetti, Giovanni; Rüschendorf, Ludger; … - In: Risks : open access journal 2 (2014) 1, pp. 25-48
Recent crises in the financial industry have shown weaknesses in the modeling of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs). Relatively minor model changes may lead to substantial changes in the RWA numbers. Similar problems are encountered in the Value-at-Risk (VaR)-aggregation of risks. In this article, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338097
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Nested MC-based risk measurement of complex portfolios : acceleration and energy efficiency
Desmettre, Sascha; Korn, Ralf; Varela, Javier Alejandro; … - In: Risks : open access journal 4 (2016) 4, pp. 1-35
Risk analysis and management currently have a strong presence in financial institutions, where high performance and energy efficiency are key requirements for acceleration systems, especially when it comes to intraday analysis. In this regard, we approach the estimation of the widely-employed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556579
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The impact of systemic risk on the diversification benefits of a risk portfolio
Busse, Marc; Dacorogna, Michel M.; Katz, Marie - In: Risks : open access journal 2 (2014) 3, pp. 260-276
Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all of the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399713
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Market risk analysis of energy in vietnam
Ngoc Phu Tran; Thang Cong Nguyen; Duc Hong Vo; McAleer, … - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 4/112, pp. 1-13
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and estimate market risk for the ten major industries in Vietnam. The focus of the empirical analysis is on the energy sector, which has been designated as one of the four key industries, together with services, food, and telecommunications, targeted for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012127865
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A genetic algorithm for investment–consumption optimization with value-at-risk constraint and information-processing cost
Jin, Zhuo; Yang, Zhixin; Yuan, Quan - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 1/32, pp. 1-15
This paper studies the optimal investment and consumption strategies in a two-asset model. A dynamic Value-at-Risk constraint is imposed to manage the wealth process. By using Value at Risk as the risk measure during the investment horizon, the decision maker can dynamically monitor the exposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015814
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Revisiting calibration of the solvency II standard formula for mortality risk : does the standard stress scenario provide an adequate approximation of value-at-risk?
Gylys, Rokas; Šiaulys, Jonas - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 2/58, pp. 1-24
The primary objective of this work is to analyze model based Value-at-Risk associated with mortality risk arising from issued term life assurance contracts and to compare the results with the capital requirements for mortality risk as determined using Solvency II Standard Formula. In particular,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019003
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Practice oriented and Monte Carlo based estimation of the value-at-risk for operational risk measurement
Greselin, Francesca; Piacenza, Fabio; Zitikis, Ričardas - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 2/50, pp. 1-20
We explore the Monte Carlo steps required to reduce the sampling error of the estimated 99.9% quantile within an acceptable threshold. Our research is of primary interest to practitioners working in the area of operational risk measurement, where the annual loss distribution cannot be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019128
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On exactitude in financial regulation : value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and expectiles
Chen, Jim - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 2, pp. 1-28
This article reviews two leading measures of financial risk and an emerging alternative. Embraced by the Basel accords, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are the leading measures of financial risk. Expectiles offset the weaknesses of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall. Indeed,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011867427