Forward-looking metrics of uncertainty based on options-implied information should be highly predictive of equity market returns in accordance with asset pricing theory. Empirically, however, the ability of the VIX, for example, to predict returns is statistically weak. In contrast to other...

This study examines the out-of-sample predictability of expected skewness of oil price returns, which serves as a metric for global future risks, as we show statistically through the association with crises of different nature, for stock returns of 10 (8 advanced plus two emerging) countries...

Machine learning applications in finance commonly employ feature decorrelation techniques developed for generic statistical problems. We investigate whether this practice appropriately addresses the unique characteristics of financial data, where correlations often encode fundamental economic...

This paper aims to develop optional semimartingale methods in risk theory to allow for a larger class of risk models. Optional semimartingales are left-continuous with right-limit stochastic processes defined on a probability space where the usual conditions - completeness and right-continuity...

We introduce a new coherent risk measure, the minimal-entropy risk measure, which is built on the minimal-entropy 𝜎-martingale measure - a concept inspired by the well-known minimal-entropy martingale measure used in option pricing. While the minimal-entropy martingale measure is commonly...

The increasing interaction between the equity market and cryptocurrencies has raised concerns about volatility spillovers; however, empirical evidence about sectoral-specific spillover effects in emerging markets is scarce and hard to find. Existing research mainly concentrates on developed...

This paper explores optimal consumption and investment strategies for agents facing mortality risk within a complete financial market. Departing from traditional frameworks, we leverage state-dependent utility theory, discounted by the state-price process, to compare consumption streams and...

In this article, we extend the application of cooperative game theory to the so-called low-risk puzzle. Specifically, we apply concepts that consider hierarchies on the assets in the allocation of portfolio risk. These hierarchies have not previously been considered in portfolio risk allocation...

This paper uses survival analysis as a tool to assess credit risk in loan portfolios within the framework of the Basel Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach. By modeling the time to default using survival functions, the methodology allows for the estimation of default probabilities and the...