This paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non-linear models, including smooth transition regression models,...

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve...

The purpose of this paper is to survey recent developments in granular models and machine learning models for loss reserving, and to compare the two families with a view to assessment of their potential for future development. This is best understood against the context of the evolution of these...

In this study, we use Neural Networks (NNs) to price American put options. We propose two NN models-a simple one and a more complex one-and we discuss the performance of two NN models with the Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. This study relies on American put option market prices, for...

Deep learning for option pricing has emerged as a novel methodology for fast computations with applications in calibration and computation of Greeks. However, many of these approaches do not enforce any no-arbitrage conditions, and the subsequent local volatility surface is never considered. In...

We define the nagging predictor, which, instead of using bootstrapping to produce a series of i.i.d. predictors, exploits the randomness of neural network calibrations to provide a more stable and accurate predictor than is available from a single neural network run. Convergence results for the...

This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs being universal function approximators, this method trains an...

This paper explores the use of neural networks to reduce the computational cost of pricing and hedging variable annuity guarantees. Pricing these guarantees can take a considerable amount of time because of the large number of Monte Carlo simulations that are required for the fair value of these...

We are interested in obtaining forecasts for multiple time series, by taking into account the potential nonlinear relationships between their observations. For this purpose, we use a specific type of regression model on an augmented dataset of lagged time series. Our model is inspired by dynamic...

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they...