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An indexation mechanism for retirement age : analysis of the gender gap

Coppola, Mariarosaria; Russolillo, Maria; Simone, Rosaria - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 1/21, pp. 1-13

Europe are setting up pension reforms linking the retirement age and/or benefits to life expectancy. In this context, the … on the expected residual life to adjust the retirement age and keep costs at an expected budgeted level, in the spirit of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015957

Automatic indexation of the pension age to life expectancy : when policy design matters

Ayuso, Mercedes; Holzmann, Robert; Holzmann, Robert; … - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 5, pp. 1-28

Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular … process, model, and parameter risks. The results show that: (i) retirement ages are forecasted to increase substantially in … the coming decades, particularly if a constant period in retirement is targeted; (ii) retirement age policy outcomes may …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597036

Retirement ages by socio-economic class

Arnold-Gaille, Séverine; Jijiie, Anca - In: Risks : open access journal 8 (2020) 4/102, pp. 1-40

We are interested in defining the optimal retirement age by socio-economic class, given a Defined Benefit and a …. Therefore, we provide an alternative based on two accounts. We look for the retirement age allowing the accumulated value, at … lower retirement age for lower socio-economic classes and a higher retirement age for wealthier individuals. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012373083

Non-parametric integral estimation using data clustering in stochastic dynamic programming : an introduction using lifetime financial modelling

Khemka, Gaurav; Butt, Adam - In: Risks : open access journal 5 (2017) 4, pp. 1-17

This paper considers an alternative way of structuring stochastic variables in a dynamic programming framework where the model structure dictates that numerical methods of solution are necessary. Rather than estimating integrals within a Bellman equation using quadrature nodes, we use nodes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011783516

Sustaining Algeria’s retirement system in the population aging context : could a contribution cap strategy work?

Flici, Farid; Dominguez-Fabian, Inmaculada - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 6, pp. 1-11

Previous research predicts an increasing financial deficit in Algeria's PAYG retirement system, mainly due to rapid … mitigate the effects of population aging on the retirement system. Under generous Pay-As-You-Go schemes, promised pension … evolution of the financial balance of Algeria's retirement system under various contributable salary caps versus various …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014636717

Evaluating the effectiveness of modern forecasting models in predicting commodity futures prices in volatile economic times

Vancsura, László; Tatay, Tibor; Bareith, Tibor - In: Risks : open access journal 11 (2023) 2, pp. 1-16

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233184

Subnational mortality modelling : a Bayesian hierarchical model with common factors

Lu, Qian; Hanewald, Katja; Wang, Xiaojun - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 11, pp. 1-21

We propose a new model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework to project mortality at both national and subnational levels based on sparse or missing data. The new model, which has a country-region-province structure, uses common factors to pool information at the national level and within regions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012704064

The linear link : deriving age-specific death rates from life expectancy

Pascariu, Marius D.; Basellini, Ugofilippo; Aburto, … - In: Risks : open access journal 8 (2020) 4/109, pp. 1-18

The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting of life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. However, the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012385009

A study on link functions for modelling and forecasting old-age survival probabilities of Australia and New Zealand

Liu, Jacie Jia - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 1/11, pp. 1-18

Forecasting survival probabilities and life expectancies is an important exercise for actuaries, demographers, and social planners. In this paper, we examine extensively a number of link functions on survival probabilities and model the evolution of period survival curves of lives aged 60 over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422948

Calibration of transition intensities for a multistate model : application to long-term care

Esquível, Manuel L.; Guerreiro, Gracinda R.; Oliveira, … - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 2/37, pp. 1-17

We consider a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chain model for Long-Term Care with five states: the autonomous state, three dependent states of light, moderate and severe dependence levels and the death state. For a general approach, we allow for non null intensities for all the returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427010

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