Showing 1 - 10 of 512
In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012127861
Under the revised market risk framework of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the model validation regime for internal models now requires that models capture the tail risk in profit-and-loss (P&L) distributions at the trading desk level. We develop multi-desk backtests, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480976
Evaluating risk measures, premiums, and capital allocation based on dependent multi-losses is a notoriously difficult task. In this paper, we demonstrate how this can be successfully accomplished when losses follow the multivariate Pareto distribution of the second kind, which is an attractive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009754682
This article is concerned with the study of the tail correlation among equity indices by means of dynamic copula functions. The main idea is to consider the impact of the use of copula functions in the accuracy of the model´s parameters and in the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012127765
In this paper, we employ 99% intraday value-at-risk (VaR) and intraday expected shortfall (ES) as risk metrics to assess the competency of the Multiplicative Component Generalised Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (MC-GARCH) models based on the 1-min EUR/USD exchange rate returns. Five...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018629
This paper presents the first methodological proposal of estimation of the VaR. Our approach is dynamic and calibrated to market extreme scenarios, incorporating the need of regulators and financial institutions in more sensitive risk measures. We also propose a simple backtesting methodology by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011811561
This paper discusses different classes of loss models in non-life insurance settings. It then overviews the class of Tukey transform loss models that have not yet been widely considered in non-life insurance modelling, but offer opportunities to produce flexible skewness and kurtosis features...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507468
, Denmark, Portugal and Slovakia. To this end, we forecast an alternative period and cohort life expectancy measures using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597036
Portfolio credit risk is often concerned with the tail distribution of the total loss, defined to be the sum of default losses incurred from a collection of individual loans made out to the obligors. The default for an individual loan occurs when the assets of a company (or individual) fall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014230963
This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489103