The Sato process model for option prices is expanded to accomodate credit considerations by incorporating a single jump to default occuring at an independent random time with a Weibull distribution. Explicit formulas for bid and ask prices are derived. Liquidity considerations are captured by...

This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and...

When the pricing kernel is U-shaped, then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold, determined by the slope of the U-shaped kernel in its increasing region, and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing...

Risk premia are related to price probability ratios or for continuous time pure jump processes the ratios of jump arrival rates under the pricing and physical measures. The variance gamma model is employed to synthesize densities with risk premia seen as the ratio of the three parameters. The...

Index option pricing on world market indices are investigated using Lévy processes with no positive jumps. Economically this is motivated by the possible absence of longer horizon short positions while mathematically we are able to evaluate for such processes the probability of a Rally Before a...

For mean reverting base probabilities option pricing models are developed using an explicit measure change induced by the selection of a terminal time and a terminal random variable. The models employed are the square root process and an OU equation driven by centered variance gamma shocks. VIX...

Summarizing option surfaces using parametric representations, their movements are decomposed into a number of effects. Arguments are presented for treating traditional sensitivity attribution terms as regression factors leading to significant attribution improvements

A local volatility model is enhanced by the possibility of a single jump to default. The jump has a hazard rate that is the product of the stock price raised to a prespecified negative power and a deterministic function of time. The empirical work uses a power of -1.5. It is shown how one may...

A relatively simple approach to correlating unit period returns of Lévy processes is developed. We write the Lévy process as a time changed Brownian motion and correlate the Brownian motions. It is shown that sample correlations understate the required correlation between the Brownian motions...

The concept of stress levels embedded in S&P 500 options are defined and illustrated with explicit constructions. The particular example of a stress function used is MINMAXVAR. Seven joint laws for the top 50 stocks in the index are considered. The first time changes a Gaussian one factor...