Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts,...

Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Acronyms and abbreviations -- Structural transformation in developing countries -- Employment -- Productivity growth -- Urbanization -- Industrialization -- Poverty -- Role of the state and policy -- Index

What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other...

1. Introduction -- 2. Developing country growth and the commodity terms of trade -- 3. The statistical properites of commodity prices -- 4. Country case studies : primary commodities and economic development -- 5. Conclusion : commodity dependence in developing countries: economic destiny or...