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Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2009
Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google …In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google … Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332967
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Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2009
Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google …In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google … Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008469283
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A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on internet search query data
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2010
provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on unobserved factors extracted from a set of consumption-related search … categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The predictive performance of the indicator is assessed in real … confidence indicator. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments the Google indicator outperformed the surveybased indicators. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671626
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Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators
Schlösser, Alexander - 2020
We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012150760
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A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on internet search query data
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2010
provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on unobserved factors extracted from a set of consumption-related search … categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The predictive performance of the indicator is assessed in real … confidence indicator. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments the Google indicator outperformed the surveybased indicators. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273563
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Information or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy
Döhrn, Roland; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2010
The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273580
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Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2012
statistical forecasting models improves the forecasting performance in almost all cases. However, the challenge to identify … irregular events and to find the appropriate time series from Google Insights for search remains. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289822
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Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting
Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2012
statistical forecasting models improves the forecasting performance in almost all cases. However, the challenge to identify … irregular events and to find the appropriate time series from Google Insights for search remains. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860294
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Information or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy
Döhrn, Roland; Schmidt, Christoph M. - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2010
The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identifi cation strategies, but also their effi - ciency in translating new information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008641786
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Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules
Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019
their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012036859