We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper also presents a simple stratified sampling procedure in the...

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...

A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...

A nonparametric approach is presented to test whether decisions on a probability simplex could be induced by quasiconcave preferences. Necessary and sufficient conditions are presented. If the answer is affirmative, the methods developed here allow to reconstruct bounds on indifference curves....

This paper shows how revealed preference relations, observed under general budget sets, can be extended using closure operators which impose certain assumptions on preferences. Common extensions are based on the assumption that preferences are convex and/or monotonic, but we also consider...

This article provides a robust non-parametric approach to demand analysis based on a concept called homothetic efficiency. Homotheticity is a useful restriction or assumption but data rarely satisfy testable conditions. To overcome this problem, this article provides a way to estimate homothetic...

Methods for estimating equivalence scales usually rely on rather strong identifying assumptions. This paper considers a partially identified estimator for equivalence scales derived from the potential outcomes framework and using nonparametric methods for estimation, which requires only mild...

Revealed Preference offers nonparametric tests for whether consumption observations can be rationalized by a utility function. If a consumer is inconsistent with GARP, we might need a measure for the severity of inconsistency. One widely used measure is the Afriat efficiency index (AEI). We...

We provide a framework to decompose preferences into a notion of distributive justice and a selfishness part and to recover individual notions of distributive justice from data collected in appropriately designed experiments. “Dictator games” with varying transfer rates used in Andreoni and...

P(enalized)-splines and fractional polynomials (FPs) have emerged as powerful smoothing techniques with increasing popularity in several fields of applied research. Both approaches provide considerable flexibility, but only limited comparative evaluations of the performance and properties of the...