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(How) do the ECB and the Fed react to financial market uncertainty? : the Taylor rule in times of crisis

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2010

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931391

Does the ECB rely on a Taylor rule? : comparing ex-post with real time data

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2009

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa.We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003877669

State-of-play in implementing macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area : short version

Gros, Daniel; Alcidi, Cinzia; Belke, Ansgar; Coutinho, … - 2014

reforms have not yet taken hold. The EU-led macroeconomic adjustment programmes outside the euro area (e.g. Latvia) seem to … finden. Survey-basierte Evidenz legt nahe, dass Strukturreformen bisher kaum gewirkt haben. Die von der EU geführten …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010349252

(When) should a non-euro country join the banking union?

Belke, Ansgar; Dobrza´nska, Anna; Gros, Daniel; Smaga, … - 2016

We analyze the benefits and costs of a non-euro country opting-in to the banking union. The decision to opt-in depends on the comparison between the assessment of the banking union attractiveness and the robustness of a national safety net. The benefits of opting-in are still only potential and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011446695

Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation : an empirical analysis for euro area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2016

Is secular stagnation a valid concern for Euro Area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. We apply our approach to twelve Euro Area countries, since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500118

The economic impact of Brexit : evidence from modelling free trade agreements

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2017

between the UK and the EU27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the US …). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. But all available studies … concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU27 would bear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662701

Business cycle synchronization in the EMU : core vs. periphery

Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens; Gros, Daniel - 2016

This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011570812

Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034314

Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation : empirical evidence for euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134351

QE in the euro area : has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2019

The asset purchase programme of the euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) involved the purchase of peripheral euro area government bonds, which were clearly not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994801