In contrast to conventional model selection criteria, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows for purpose-specific choice of models. This accommodates the idea that one kind of model might be highly appropriate for inferences on a particular parameter, but not for another. Ever since its...

As of late 2008, the steady decline of U.S. crude oil production over the last decades was reversed by the increased adoption of the hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") technology. Adapting the supply-side model proposed by Kaufmann et al. (2004) to assess OPEC’s ability to influence real oil...