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Forecasting private consumption : survey-based indicators vs. Google trends

Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2009

In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003903709

(How) do the ECB and the Fed react to financial market uncertainty? : the Taylor rule in times of crisis

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2010

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931391

Being focused : when the purpose of inference matters for model selection

Behl, Peter; Dette, Holger; Frondel, Manuel; Tauchmann, … - 2011

In contrast to conventional model selection criteria, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows for purpose-specific choice of models. This accommodates the idea that one kind of model might be highly appropriate for inferences on a particular parameter, but not for another. Ever since its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579634

Immigration and status exchange in Australia and the United States

Choi, Kate H.; Tienda, Marta; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; … - 2011

The claim that marriage is a venue for status exchange of achieved traits, like education, and ascribed attributes, notably race and ethnic membership, has regained traction in the social stratifi cation literature. Most studies that consider status exchanges ignore birthplace as a social...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579650

Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2012

. Using data for four major economies, namely the USA, the UK, the Euro Area, and Japan, we allow for nonlinearity and … USA and the UK compared to Japan and the Euro Area. In addition, the adjustment of the general price level is … bietet aus einem neuen Blickwinkel. Basierend auf Daten für die USA, Großbritannien, die Eurozone und Japan unterscheiden wir …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580064

Modifying Taylor reaction functions in presence of the zero-lower-bound : evidence for the ECB and the fed

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2012

We propose an alternative way of estimating Taylor reaction functions if the zero-lower-bound on nominal interest rates is binding. This approach relies on tackling the real rather than the nominal interest rate. So if the nominal rate is (close to) zero central banks can influence the inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580148

Empirical evidence on the generalized Taylor principle

Jovanović, Mario - 2012

During financial crises central banks usually decrease interest rates in order to reduce financial uncertainty. This behavior increases inflation risk. The trade-off between inflation and uncertainty stabilization can be modeled by the generalized Taylor rule, which describes inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580165

Monetary policy, commodity prices and inflation : empirical evidence from the US

Verheyen, Florian - 2010

. Dieses Papier untersucht diese Beziehung für die USA mit Hilfe von Granger-Kausalitätstests und strukturellen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008933736

Volatility patterns of CDS, bond and stock markets before and during the financial crisis : evidence from major financial institutions

Belke, Ansgar; Gokus, Christian - 2011

This study is motivated by the development of credit-related instruments and signals of stock price movements of large banks during the recent financial crisis. What is common to most of the empirical studies in this field is that they concentrate on modeling the conditional mean. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935244

Does monetary policy affect stock market uncertainty? : Empirical evidence from the United States

Jovanović, Mario - 2011

This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy significantly Granger-causes stock market confidence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935254