Multiplicative error models (MEM) became a standard tool for modeling conditional durations of intra-day transactions, realized volatilities and trading volumes. The parametric estimation of the corresponding multivariate model, the so-called vector MEM (VMEM), requires a specification of the...

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating time-varying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....

With increasing wind power penetration more and more volatile and weather dependent energy is fed into the German electricity system. To manage the risk of windless days and transfer revenue risk from wind turbine owners to investors wind power derivatives were introduced. These insurance-like...

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all...

We extend the definition of a convex risk measure to a conditional framework where additional information is available. We characterize these risk measures through the associated acceptance sets and prove a representation result in terms of conditional expectations. As an example we consider the...

Ambiguity, also called Knightian or model uncertainty, is a key feature in financial modeling. A recent paper by Maccheroni et al. (2004) characterizes investor preferences under aversion against both risk and ambiguity. Their result shows that these preferences can be numerically represented in...

We analyze the two goals behind the European Bologna Process of increasing student mobility: enabling graduates to develop multi-cultural skills and increasing the quality of universities. We isolate three effects: 1) a competition effect that raises quality; 2) a free rider effect that lowers...

We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets, studying a credit market where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral-hazard problems by securing a portion of a...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al. 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in...