realistic expectations later on. This paper shows that the costs induced by high aspirations are not trivial. We first develop a … evidence from a lab experiment on the factor found to be crucial: the adjustment of reference states to changes in expectations …

period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …

addition, widely used regression models have not been evaluated in terms of ex-ante forecasting. In this paper we analyze the … particularly provide a comparison of linear and nonlinear models with respect to ex-ante forecasting. In terms of average ranks of …

modelling bias and estimation (in)efficiency. In forecasting, the proposed adaptive approach significantly outperforms a MEM …

new model achieves higher forecasting performance compared to a standard DCC model. …

We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China …