A State Price Density (SPD) is the density function of a risk neutral equivalent martingale measure for option pricing, and is indispensible for exotic option pricing and portfolio risk management. Many approaches have been proposed in the last two decades to calibrate a SPD using financial...

A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...

We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock's hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that...

This paper presents presents presents a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) model to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine various relations between stock returns and downside risk. Evidence from major advanced...

The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method can enhance Bayesian DSGE estimation by sampling from a posterior distribution spanning potentially nonnested models with parameter spaces of different dimensionality. We use the method to jointly sample from an ARMA process of unknown...

In this paper, we develop and apply Bayesian inference for an extended Nelson-Siegel (1987) term structure model capturing interest rate risk. The so-called Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel (SVNS) model allows for stochastic volatility in the underlying yield factors. We propose a Markov...

The influence of maternal health problems on child's worrying status is important in practice in terms of the intervention of maternal health problems early for the influence on child's worrying status. Conventional methods apply symmetric prior distributions such as a normal distribution or a...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions and monetary rules augmented with different labor market indicators. In accordance with a theoretical literature I find that a central bank reacts to a labor market tightness, employment or unemployment. Posterior odds tests...

There are few multicity studies to address the effect of short-term effect of particulate matter air pollution on daily Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) mortality in developing countries, much fewer to further discuss its threshold and seasonal effect. This study investigates the season-varying...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...