This paper presents a new approach to deriving default intensities from CDS or bond spreads that yields smooth intensity curves required e.g. for pricing or risk management purposes. Assuming continuous premium or coupon payments, the default intensity can be obtained by solving an integral...

State price density (SPD) contains important information concerning market expectations. In existing literature, a constrained estimator of the SPD is found by nonlinear least squares in a suitable Sobolev space. We improve the behavior of this estimator by implementing a covariance structure...

In this paper we give a generalized model of the interest rates term structure including Nelson-Siegel and Svensson structure. For that we introduce a continuous m-factor exponential-polynomial form of forward interest rates and demonstrate its considerably better performance in a fitting of the...

We introduce a dynamic banking–macro model, which abstains from conventional mean– reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset–price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking...

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...

Normal distribution of the residuals is the traditional assumption in the classical multivariate time series models. Nevertheless it is not very often consistent with the real data. Copulae allows for an extension of the classical time series models to nonelliptically distributed residuals. In...

One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine...

Understanding the dynamics of high dimensional non-normal dependency structure is a challenging task. This research aims at attacking this problem by building up a hidden Markov model (HMM) for Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae (HAC), where the HAC represent a wide class of models for high...

We introduce the notion of realized copula. Based on assumptions of the marginal distri- butions of daily stock returns and a copula family, realized copula is dened as the copula structure materialized in realized covariance estimated from within-day high-frequency data. Copula parameters are...

The delisting of brands is frequently used by retailers to strengthen their negotiating position with the manufacturers and suppliers of their product assortment. However, retailers and manufacturers have to consider the risk of potential reactions when customers are faced with a reduced or...