In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex-ante forecasting performance for...

Exporte gelten als Wachstumsmotor der deutschen Wirtschaft und werden von der Wirtschaftspolitik auf vielfältige Weise gefördert. Doch führt die Förderung der Aufnahme von Handelsbeziehungen mit dem Ausland durch Betriebe, die bislang nicht exportierten, wirklich zu einem Wachstum der...

In a world with complete markets and no transactions cost, the decision whether to rent or buy a home is separate from a household's professional income risk. If markets are incomplete and have frictions, however, profession- specific income risk, regional house price risk, and mobility needs...

The need to understand and leverage consumer-brand bonds has become critical in a marketplace characterized by increasing unpredictability, diminishing product differentiation, and heightened competitive pressure. This is especially true for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturers and...

In many economic applications it is desirable to make future predictions about the financial status of a company. The focus of predictions is mainly if a company will default or not. A support vector machine (SVM) is one learning method which uses historical data to establish a classification...

Pricing kernels implicit in option prices play a key role in assessing the risk aversion over equity returns. We deal with nonparametric estimation of the pricing kernel (Empirical Pricing Kernel) given by the ratio of the risk-neutral density estimator and the subjective density estimator. The...

We study the impact of the arrival of macroeconomic news on the informational and noise-driven components in high-frequency quote processes and their conditional variances. Bid and ask returns are decomposed into a common ("efficient return") factor and two market-side-specific components...

This chapter deals with nonparametric estimation of the risk neutral density. We present three different approaches which do not require parametric functional assumptions on the underlying asset price dynamics nor on the distributional form of the risk neutral density. The first estimator is a...

The analysis of return series from financial markets is often based on the Peaks-over-threshold (POT) model. This model assumes independent and identically distributed observations and therefore a Poisson process is used to characterize the occurrence of extreme events. However, stylized facts...

By analyzing occupational task profiles, an occupational change can be split up into two components: (1) transferability of task portfolios between occupations and (2) change in the value of the occupation-employee match. Extending the task-based approach of Gathmann and Schönberg (2009) by...