In this paper we adopt a principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure and employ autoregressive models (AR) to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing in favor of structural variation, we propose data...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

We analyse high-frequency changes in the euro area money market yield curve on dates when the ECB regularly sets and communicates decisions on policy interest rates to construct different indicators of monetary policy news relating to policy decisions and to central bank communication. The...

Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persistence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. the policy spreads) remains sufficiently low. This paper applies fractional integration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads of euro area...

This paper uses index number theory to disentangle changes in aggregate retail interest rates due to changes in individual component rates ("interest rate effect") from those caused by changes in the weights of each component ("weight effect"), on the basis of the "difference" index numbers...

The tender spread, i.e. the difference between the effective price for money in the ECB's main refinancing operations and the prevailing policy rate, is one of the main determinants behind the evolution of the EONIA with respect to the ECB's operational target. This study assesses the reasons...

In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...

We employ a time series econometric framework to explore the structural determinants of the spread between the European Overnight Rate and the ECB's Policy Rate (EONIA spread) aiming to explain the widening of the EONIA spread from mid-2004 to mid-2006. In particular, we estimate a model on the...

This paper investigates the dynamics of the pass-through between market interest rates and bank interest rates in the euro area as a function of cyclical and structural differences in the financial system. We find that overall the speed of adjustment for loans is significantly faster than for...