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Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure : an arbitrage-free approach

Chen, Shi; Härdle, Wolfgang; Wang, Weining - 2015

Inflation expectation is acknowledged to be an important indicator for policy makers and financial investors. To … capture a more accurate real-time estimate of inflation expectation on the basis of financial markets, we propose an arbitrage …-free model across different countries in a multi-maturity term structure, where we first estimate inflation expectation by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389060

Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

Blaskowitz, Oliver (contributor); … - 2008

In this paper we adopt a principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure and employ autoregressive models (AR) to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing in favor of structural variation, we propose data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636128

A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

Blaskowitz, Oliver (contributor); … - 2008

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770821

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

Blaskowitz, Oliver; Herwartz, Helmut - 2009

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003893151

The impact of news on US household inflation expectations

Chao, Shih-Kang; Härdle, Wolfgang; Sheen, Jeffrey R.; … - 2017

Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household in ation expectations reveals that exposure to news on in ation and monetary policy helps to explain in ation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657291

Forecasting the oil price using house prices

Schulz, Rainer; Wersing, Martin - 2015

We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309614

Forecasting euro-area variables with German pre-EMU data

Brüggemann, Ralf (contributor); … - 2006

It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003375993

Realized volatility of CO2 futures

Benschop, Thijs; López Cabrera, Brenda - 2017

The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) was created to reduce the CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest economic cost. In reality market participants are faced with considerable uncertainty due to price changes and require price and volatility estimates and forecasts for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747080

Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines

Härdle, Wolfgang (contributor); Moro, Rouslan (contributor) - 2007

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003633940

Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth : a comparison of linear and nonlinear (forecasting) models

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2007

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003634011