We suggest a robust form of conditional moment test as a constructive test for functional misspecification in multiplicative error models. The proposed test has power solely against violations of the conditional mean restriction but is not affected by any other type of model misspecification....

This paper studies the robust estimation and inference of threshold models with integrated regres- sors. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the profiled least squares (LS) estimator under the diminishing threshold effect assumption that the size of the threshold effect converges to zero....

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their...

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new likelihood-based panel cointegration test in the presence of a linear time trend in the data generating process. This new test is an extension of the likelihood ratio (LR) test of Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000) for trend-adjusted data to the panel...

In this note we establish the existence of the first two moments of the asymptotic trace statistic, which appears as weak limit of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the cointe- gration rank in a vector autoregressive model and whose moments may be used to develop panel cointegration...

It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic...

This paper studies the performance of nonparametric quantile regression as a tool to predict Value at Risk (VaR). The approach is flexible as it requires no assumptions on the form of return distributions. A monotonized double kernel local linear estimator is applied to estimate moderate (1%)...

The increasing share of wind energy in the portfolio of energy sources highlights its uncertainties due to changing weather conditions. To account for the uncertainty in predicting wind power production, this article examines the volatility forecasting abilities of different GARCH-type models...

Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as...