We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm...

The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IVS). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

Die Prognose der Insolvenzgefährdung von Unternehmen anhand statistischer Methodik war und ist eine bedeutende Aufgabe empirischer Forschung. Eine Möglichkeit der Beurteilung der finanziellen bzw. wirtschaftlichen Verfassung von Unternehmen stellt die sog. externe Bilanzanalyse anhand...

Eine große Herausforderung der multivariablen Analyse mit bilanziellen Kennzahlen besteht in der Identifikation derjenigen Kennzahlen, die zur besten Modellperformance führen und dabei möglichst leicht interpretierbar und intuitiv bleiben. Die Menge der in Frage kommenden Kennzahlen ist in...

In this paper we propose a Libor model with a high-dimensional specially structured system of driving CIR volatility processes. A stable calibration prodecure which takes into account a given local correlation structure is presented. The calibration algorithm is FFT based, so fast and easy to...