We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House...

The S&P500 or DAX30 are important benchmarks for the financial industry. The first mimics the performance of the major US on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, while the second does the same for the German Prime Share sector. These and other indices describe different compositions of certain segments of...

More and more companies start offering digital payment systems. Smartphones evolve to a digital wallet such that it seems like we are about to enter the era of digital finance. In fact we are already inside an digital economy. The market of e-x (x = "finance", "money", "book", you name it . . ....

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile based value at risk (EVaR) model. EVaR appears more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based Value at Risk (QVaR), nevertheless, by fitting the models over relatively long ad-hoc fixed time...

In order to integrate and facilitate the research, calculation and analysis methods around the Financial Risk Meter (FRM) project, the R package RiskAnalytics has been developed. Its main goal is to provide data processing and parallelized quantile lasso regression methods for risk analysis...

Systemically important banks are connected and have dynamic dependencies of their default probabilities. An extraction of default factors from cross-sectional credit default swaps (CDS) curves allows to analyze the shape and the dynamics of the default probabilities. Extending the Dynamic Nelson...

The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method can enhance Bayesian DSGE estimation by sampling from a posterior distribution spanning potentially nonnested models with parameter spaces of different dimensionality. We use the method to jointly sample from an ARMA process of unknown...

We propose a semiparametric measure to estimate systemic interconnectedness across financial institutions based on tail-driven spill-over effects in a ultra-high dimensional framework. Methodologically, we employ a variable selection technique in a time series setting in the context of a...

This study investigates the dynamics of quarterly real GDP per capita growth rates across four countries, the US, UK, Canada and France. I obtain estimates for ARIMA(p,q) processes for first differences of log quarterly real GDP per capita using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo, allowing...

Financial contagion and systemic risk measures are commonly derived from conditional quantiles by using imposed model assumptions such as a linear parametrization. In this paper, we provide model free measures for contagion and systemic risk which are independent of the specifcation of...