The labor-supply elasticity is a central element in many macroeconomic models. We argue that assumptions underlying previous econometric estimates of the intertemporal labor supply elasticity are inconsistent with incomplete markets economies. In particular, if the econometrician ignores...

This study presents a GDP per capita level and growth comparison across 17 main advanced countries and over the 1890-2013 long period. It proposes also a comparison of the level and growth of the main components of GDP per capita through an accounting breakdown and runs Philips-Sul (2007)...

Governments and central banks need to have an accurate and timely assessment of Gross Domestic Product's (GDP) growth rate for the current quarter, as this is essential for providing a reliable and early analysis of the current economic situation. This paper presents a series of models conceived...

This paper presents a revised version of the model OPTIM, proposed by Irac and Sédillot (2002), used at the Banque de France in order to predict French GDP quarterly growth rate, for the current and next quarters. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly...

In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential...

The quantitative and dynamic consequence of a social VAT reform, i.e. a fiscal reform consisting in substituting VAT for social contributions, is assessed using two general equilibrium models. The first one is a Walrasian model with no other frictions than distortionary taxation of labor and...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

Bivariate VAR models are Monte Carlo simulated and OLS estimated, The resulting biases are used to compare two alternative approximations to the bias. They are found to be equivalent for first-order models, whereas for second-order models Nicholls and Pope's approximation outperforms Tjostheim...

Using a microbased superpopulation approach some aspects of optimal prediction of aggregated AR(1) processes are studied.

The concept of common factors has in the econometrics literature been applied to conditional means or in some cases to conditional variances. In this paper we generalize this concept to bivariate distributions. This is done using the conditional bivariate copula as the statistical tool. The...