In recent years Taylor’s rule has become a widely used tool for assessing the stance of monetary policy. Not only has it been used to evaluate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, but also, for example, to evaluate the appropriateness of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy...

In the business cycle literature researchers often want to determine the extent to which models of the business cycle reproduce broad characteristics of the real world business cycle they purport to represent. Of considerable interest is whether a model’s implied cycle chronology is consistent...

Statistical similarities among the latest long expansion in the U.S. and some other past expansions, in particular that of the 1960s, are examined. Corresponding to the definition of statistical similarity, a test based on the covariance matrices of business cycle component variables for the...

This paper examines the magnitude and duration of the GST effect on inflation in Australia’s eight major capital cities using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis and quarterly data spanning from 1948:4 to 2003:1. We found that GST had a significant but transitory impact on inflation only in...

Durland and McCurdy (1994) investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime switching approach, introduced by Hamilton (1989) and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo (1994). In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration...

This paper draws its title from a paper written over 30 years ago by Geoffrey H. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currently to be somewhat diverging views – particularly in Australia – as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second, largely as a result...