Over the last decade a new consensus model has emerged in monetary macroeconomics, labelled New Keynesian macroeconomics (Clarida et al., 1999). It consists of three simple building blocs: a forward-looking IS-equation that is derived from the optimization problem of a representative household,...

In this paper we carry over a static version of a New Keynesian Macro Model developed in previous papers (see Bofinger, Mayer, and Wollmershäuser 2002) to a monetary union. For a similar approach see (Uhlig 2002). We will show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union...

This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm, in which banks decide on their loan supply in the light of uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a vector error correction model (VECM), we...

This paper explores whether the cost channel solves the price puzzle. We set-up a New Keynesian DSGE model and estimate it for the euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings suggest that - under certain parameter restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by profes-sional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hy-pothesis. This dismal result is...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the /US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by profes-sional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hy-pothesis. This dismal result is according...

Die Autoren der Beiträge des Bandes befassen sich mit dem Transmissionsmechanismus in der Geldpolitik. Im Zentrum steht somit die Frage, wie sich geldpolitische Maßnahmen der Notenbanken auf gesamtwirtschaftliche Größen übertragen. -- G. Winckler und S. Kaufmann untersuchen in ihrem Beitrag...