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We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions … attacks, bank runs and debt crises, our theory of contagion is supported by existing evidence and generates a new testable …
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We analyze how a wealth shift to emerging countries may lead to instability in developed countries. Investors exposed to expropriation risk are willing to pay a safety premium to invest in countries with good property rights. Domestic intermediaries compete for such cheap funding by carving out...
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Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …
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to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the … more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second …
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Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation....
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