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Ahnert, Toni; Bertsch, Christoph - 2015

We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions … attacks, bank runs and debt crises, our theory of contagion is supported by existing evidence and generates a new testable …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508402

Cheap but flighty : how global imbalances create financial fragility

Ahnert, Toni; Perotti, Enrico C. - 2015

We analyze how a wealth shift to emerging countries may lead to instability in developed countries. Investors exposed to expropriation risk are willing to pay a safety premium to invest in countries with good property rights. Domestic intermediaries compete for such cheap funding by carving out...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304762

Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Demand System

Cranfield, John A. L. - 2016

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012747682

Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries

Hertel, Thomas W. - 2016

Rich countries' agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012747917

The Effect of Climate and Technological Uncertainty in Crop Yields on the Optimal Path of Global Land Use

Cai, Yongyang - 2017

The pattern of global land use has important implications for the world's food and timber supplies, bioenergy …, biodiversity and other eco-system services. However, the productivity of this resource is critically dependent on the world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972864

Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs - 2017

evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973101

Potential Implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the WTO : The Case of Wheat

Hertel, Thomas W. - 2017

The Special Safeguard Mechanism was a key issue in the July 2008 failure to reach agreement in the World Trade … uses a stochastic simulation model of the world wheat market to investigate the effects of policy makers implementing … percent in some regions, with world wheat trade falling by 4.7 percent. The price measures discriminate against low price …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976503

Trading for bailouts

Ahnert, Toni; Machado, Caio; Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves - 2020 - Last updated: June 4, 2020

Government interventions such as bailouts are often implemented in times of high uncertainty. Policymakers may therefore rely on information from financial markets to guide their decisions. We propose a model in which a policymaker learns from market activity and where market participants have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243366

Cyber security and ransomware in financial markets

Ahnert, Toni; Brolley, Michael; Cimon, David; Riordan, Ryan - 2022 - Last updated: July 14, 2022

Financial markets face the constant threat of cyber attacks. We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients' vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013277108

Opaque assets and rollover risk

Ahnert, Toni; Nelson, Benjamin F. - 2016

We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability. The endogenous benefit of opacity is lower fragility when profitability is expected to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451106