We derive transition probability matrices for chronic health conditions using survey prevalence data. Matrices are constructed for successive age groups and the sequence represents the “age dynamics” of the health conditions for a stationary population – the probabilities of acquiring the...

In this article we analyse the rates at which those admitted to hospital with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) receive aggressive treatment, assess how those rates have changed over time, and ask whether there is evidence of age discrepancies. Estimates made on the basis of data from an...

Canadians expect the same access to health care whether they are rich or poor, and wherever they live, often without direct charge at the point of service. However, we find that the private cost of long-term care differs greatly across the country, and within provinces, we find substantial...

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life...

Being higher on the socioeconomic scale is correlated with being in better health, but is there is a causal relationship? Using three years of longitudinal data for individuals aged 50 and older from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, we study the health transitions for those who...

The effects of population change on requirements for physicians in Ontario are studied. Principal findings are the following: (a) contrary to popular belief, the overall increase in requirements will be significantly lower in 2000-2020 than in the preceding two decades; (b) population aging...

Price and quantity indexes are applied in the analysis of expenditure on physician services in the province of Ontario, Canada, using newly available data files for 1992 and 2004. Price indexes for such services are found to have increased less rapidly than indexes of general inflation and...

Sixty-five has long been used to define the beginning of 'old age'. Yet it is clear that the definition is arbitrary, and with continuing reductions in mortality and morbidity rates it will become increasingly inappropriate as time passes. We consider how the definition might be modified to...

The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such...

Since the prevalence of many chronic health conditions increases with age we might anticipate that as the population ages the proportion with one or more such conditions would rise, as would the cost of treatment. We ask three questions: How much would the overall prevalence of chronic...