This paper develops a theoretical model for the formation of subjective beliefs on individual survival expectations. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) indicate that, on average, young respondents underestimate their true survival probability whereas old respondents overestimate...

Psychological evidence suggests that people’s learning behavior is often prone to a “myside bias”or “irrational belief persistence”in contrast to learning behavior exclusively based on objective data. In the context of Bayesian learning such a bias may result in diverging posterior...

We define pessimistic, respectively optimistic, investors as CEU (Choquet expected utility) decision makers who update their pessimistic, respectively optimistic, beliefs according to a pessimistic (Dempster-Shafer), respectively optimistic, update rule. This paper then demonstrates that, in...

Abel (2002) proposes a resolution of the riskfree rate and the equity premium puzzles} by considering pessimism and doubt. Pessimism is characterized by subjective probabilistic beliefs about asset returns that are stochastically dominated by the objective distribution of these returns. The...

The unique point-rationalizable solution of a game is the unique Nash equilibrium. However, this solution has the additional advantage that it can be justified by the epistemic assumption that it is Common Knowledge of the players that only best responses are chosen. Thus, games with a unique...

Moulin (1984) describes the class of nice games for which the solution concept of point-rationalizability coincides with iterated elimination of strongly dominated strategies. As a consequence nice games have the desirable property that all rationalizability concepts determine the same strategic...

This paper examines the existence of strategic solutions for finite normal form games under the assumption that strategy choices can be described as choices among lotteries where players have security- and potential level preferences over lotteries (e.g., Gilboa, 1988; Jaffray, 1988; Cohen, 1992). Since...

For games with expected utility maximizing players whose strategy sets are finite, Pearce (1984) shows that a strategy is strictly dominated by some mixed strategy, if and only if, this strategy is not a best response to some belief about opponents' strategy choice. This note generalizes...

This paper derives sufficient and necessary conditions for dominance-solvability of so-called lattice games whose strategy sets have a lattice structure while they simultaneously belong to some metric space. The argument combines and extends Moulin's (1984) approach for nice games and Milgrom...

The security level models of Gilboa (1988) and of Jaffray (1988) as well as the security and potential level model of Cohen (1992) accomodate succesfully classical Allais paradoxa while they offer an interesting explanation for their occurrence. However, experimental data suggest a systematic...