Botha, Ferdi; Keeton, Gavin - In: South African Journal of Economics 82 (2014) 3, pp. 468-473
In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually...