Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using...

This textbook is about three key aspects of system design: decision making under uncertainty, trade-off studies and formal risk analyses. Recognizing that the mathematical treatment of these topics is similar, the authors generalize existing mathematical techniques to cover all three areas....

Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners...

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book, the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging...

This is the first book combining research on the Global Environment, Catastrophic Risks and Economic Theory and Policy. Modern economic theory originated in the middle of the twentieth century when industrial expansion coupled with population growth led to a voracious use of natural resources...

1. Risky Play -- 2. Falling Fast -- 3. Moral Risk in a Nursing Home -- 4. Coping with Fallibility in Aviation -- 5. Fallibility and Trust in Healthcare -- 6. Approaches to Help in Organizations -- 7. Ethics of Fallibility

Dieser Band stellt praxisorientiert die Monte-Carlo-Simulation (Risikosimulation) vor, die es ermöglicht, den Gesamtrisikoumfang eines Unternehmens oder Projektes zu berechnen (Risikoaggregation) und mögliche „bestandsgefährdende Entwicklungen“ aus Kombinationseffekten von Einzelrisiken...

Die Risikobeurteilung von Bilanzmanipulationen ist eine der schwierigsten Aufgaben der gesetzlichen Jahresabschlussprüfung, die in hohem Maß mit prüferischem Ermessen verbunden ist. Andreas Schiel entwickelt prototypisch ein wissensbasiertes System, mit dessen Hilfe das Manipulationsrisiko...

Preface -- 1 Real Estate Investing After the Fall -- 2 Real Estate Finance: Notes, Mortgages, and Payment Structures -- 3 Finance and Real Estate Valuation -- 4 Real Estate Valuation -- 5 The Anatomy of a Lease -- 6 Risk Analysis -- 7 Taxation in Investment Real Estate -- 8 Investing in...