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role for capital flows as a result of assets’ changing expected returns and risk characteristics. In this paper, we develop … approach identifies the timevarying portfolio shares that result from assets’ time-varying expected returns and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283297
the world real interest rate and therefore shed new light on the real side of the interest rate conundrum. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283467
This paper analyzes the welfare implications of international spillovers related to productivity gains, changes in market size, or government spending. We introduce trade costs and endogenous varieties in a two-country general-equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, drawing a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283303
degree of financial integration in the world economy. A growing body of research emphasizes the increasing leverage in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283335
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt, and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one-fourth and one-third of the increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333616
Sustained large U.S. current account deficits have led some economists and policymakers to worry that future current account adjustment could occur through a sudden and disruptive depreciation of the dollar and a sharp drop in U.S. consumption. Two factors that, to date, have cast doubt on such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283364
current account turns negative because households borrow from the rest of the world. At the same time, however, the world real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287054
rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international … asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes a global risk … response index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942779
taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The reason is … because, while consumption risk-pooling is important, individual countries also care about domestic output fluctuations … crucial to ensure cross-border risk sharing. Our findings point to the possibility of costly capital control wars and thus to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333573
We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about "sudden stop" events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460635