policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks … explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total …

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses … all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation … measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the 'FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)' for CPI and …

realistic parameter values, the model generates a blip in inflation of the same magnitude observed in the data …

earlier work by Sbordone. The estimator is again applied to a version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, in which inflation …. While confirming the importance of forward-looking terms in accounting for inflation dynamics, it suggests how the … methodology can be applied to extend the analysis of inflation to a multivariate setting …

exchange rates have a modest effect on domestic price inflation while import prices have a stronger effect. Pass-through is …

This paper provides a review of the concept of core inflation and evaluates the performance of several proposed … measures. We first consider the rationale of a central bank in setting its inflation goal in terms of a selected rate of … consumer price growth and the use of a core inflation measure as a means of achieving this long-term policy objective. We then …

implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze … whether this is a structurally invariant relationship. We first estimate an unrestricted time-series model for inflation, unit …

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) asserts that inflation depends on expectationsof real marginal costs, but … empirical research has shown that purely forward-looking versions of the model generate too little inflation persistence. In … this paper, we offer a resolution of the persistence problem. We hypothesize that inflation is highly persistent because of …

. We find that for all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate of about 2 percent, there is a second … equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10 percent. Thus, the model can simultaneously account for the low and high … inflation episodes in the United States. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and …