pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise … quarterly inflation relative to an extended range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature. …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical … apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time series. Our … analysis indicates that models containing factors do outperform autoregressive models in forecasting both GDP and inflation …

We compare a number of data-rich prediction methods that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting with a lesser …