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The fisher BCPI : the Bank of Canada’s new commodity price index
Kolet, Ilan; MacDonald, Ryan - 2010
The prices of commodities produced in Canada have important implications for the performance of the Canadian economy … of Canada commodity price index (BCPI). Since its inception, the BCPI has been a fixed-weight index of commodity prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981393
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Nowcasting Canadian GDP with density combinations
Chernis, Tony; Webley, Taylor - 2022
Assessing the state of the economy in real time is critical for policy-making, and understanding the risks to those assessments is equally important. Policy-makers are typically provided with point forecasts that contain insufficient information about risks. In contrast, predictive densities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013193292
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Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports : GRACE
Binette, André; Chernis, Tony; De Munnik, Daniel - 2017
Bank of Canada fs current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Based on a dynamic … variables not only from the United States but also for all of Canada's major trading partners. We apply this approach to total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586558
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Fundamental drivers of existing home sales in Canada
Webley, Taylor - 2018
Existing home sales' share of Canada's economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942345
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Nowcasting Canadian economic activity in an uncertain environment
Chernis, Tony; Sekkel, Rodrigo - 2018
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894244
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What's up with unit non-response in the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey? : the effect of staff tenure
Miller, Sarah; Amirault, David; Martin, Laurent - 2017
Since 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly … of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Participation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011729404
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The output-inflation trade-off in Canada
Gnocchi, Stefano; McKellips, Fanny; Sekkel, Rodrigo; … - 2024
We explain how the Bank of Canada's policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577847
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Deriving longer-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premium measures for Canada
Fenou, Bruno; Tarshi, Zabi - 2024
We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. First, we estimate … and the term structure of the Government of Canada nominal bond yields. Then we estimate the inflation risk premium by … positive in 2021. Because real return bonds will eventually disappear in Canada, a market-derived indicator for long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577849
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What can earnings calls tell us about the output gap and inflation in Canada?
Gosselin, Marc-André; Taskin, Temel - 2023
We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014303896
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Forecasting risks to the Canadian economic outlook at a daily frequency
Azizova, Chinara; Feunou, Bruno; Kyeong, James - 2023
In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Canadian economy at a daily frequency. To do this, we model the conditional moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343001