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Inflation in the great recession and new keynesian models

Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; Schorfheide, Frank - 2013

during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009744674

Cúrdia, Vasco; Reis, Ricardo - 2010

The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used to study business cycles typically assume that exogenous disturbances are independent first-order autoregressions. This paper relaxes this tight and arbitrary restriction by allowing for disturbances that have a rich contemporaneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003948805

Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? : redux

Bhattarai, Saroj; Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Schoenle, Raphael - 2012

shocks driving the economy and the systematic response of monetary policy to inflation: More flexible prices amplify the … the effect of supply shocks on output if interest rates are very responsive to inflation. Next, we estimate a medium …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009521652

Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability

Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina - 2012

We develop a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles in the context of a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. The interaction between a production sector, a financial intermediation sector, and a household sector gives rise to amplification of fundamental shocks that affect real economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580891

Money, credit, monetary policy, and the business cycle in the euro area : what has changed since the crisis?

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2019

This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000041

Investment shocks and business cycles

Justiniano, Alejandro (contributor); … - 2008

Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in U.S. output and hours. Moreover, like a textbook demand shock, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions. We reach these conclusions by estimating a dynamic stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003781477

Rare shocks, great recessions

Cúrdia, Vasco; Del Negro, Marco; Greenwald, Daniel L. - 2012

We estimate a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, but replace the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (2007) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that 1) the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010219714

Investment shocks and the relative price of investment

Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2009

We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003948199

Household leveraging and deleveraging

Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2013

U.S. households' debt skyrocketed between 2000 and 2007, but has since been falling. This leveraging and deleveraging cycle cannot be accounted for by the liberalization and subsequent tightening of mortgage credit standards that occurred during the period. We base this conclusion on a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721293

What predicts U.S. recessions?

Liu, Weiling; Mönch, Emanuel - 2014

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404520