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Boyarchenko, Nina; Fuster, Andreas; Lucca, David O. - 2014

Spreads of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary significantly in the cross section and over time, but the sources of this variation are not well understood. We document that, in the cross section, MBS spreads adjusted for the prepayment option show a pronounced smile with respect to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404146

Arbitrage-free models of stocks and bonds

Durham, J. Benson - 2013

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222892

Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility

Adrian, Tobias (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource], Rev. February 2008

, informed investors, and noise traders. Arbitrageurs face a trade-off between arbitrage and inference: they would like to buy … assets in response to temporary price declines (the arbitrage effect) but sell when prices decline permanently (the inference … effect). In equilibrium, the presence of arbitrageurs increases volatility when the inference effect dominates the arbitrage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002101431

Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite

Van Tassel, Peter; Vogt, Erik - 2016

Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781

Option-implied term structures

Vogt, Erik - 2014

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459730

No good deals - no bad models

Boyarchenko, Nina; Cerrato, Mario; Crosby, John; … - 2012

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, investors seek to make their valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a modeluncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases investors' effective risk aversion. Using this utility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009679505

The term structure of inflation expectations

Adrian, Tobias (contributor); Wu, Hao (contributor) - 2009

We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003812556

Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics

Adrian, Tobias; Mönch, Emanuel; Shin, Hyun Song - 2010

Fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries provide a window on the joint determination of asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates. We document that financial intermediary balance sheets contain strong predictive power for future excess returns on a broad set of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003948219

Leverage asset pricing

Adrian, Tobias; Mönch, Emanuel; Shin, Hyun Song - 2013

We investigate intermediary asset pricing theories empirically and find strong support for models that have intermediary leverage as the relevant state variable. A parsimonious model that uses detrended dealer leverage as a price-of-risk variable, and innovations to dealer leverage as a pricing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009787499

Betting against beta (and gamma) using government bonds

Durham, J. Benson - 2015

Purportedly consistent with "risk parity" (RP) asset allocation, recent studies document compelling "low risk" trading strategies that exploit a persistently negative relation between Sharpe ratios (SRs) and maturity along the U.S. Treasury (UST) term structure. This paper extends this evidence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467093

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