Showing 1 - 10 of 177
I establish that inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns: Stocks that have low returns during … inflationary times command a risk premium. I estimate a market price of inflation risk that is comparable in magnitude to the price … of risk for the aggregate market. Inflation is therefore a key determinant of risk in the cross section of stocks. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752802
. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks confirm this mechanism. Industry-country pairs affected by a rise of … labor, which results in lower productivity, investment, and value added. Without a rise in zombie credit, inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391508
We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) by combining information from twenty models. The ERP in 2012 and 2013 reached heightened levels - of around 12 percent - not seen since the 1970s. We conclude that the high ERP was caused by unusually low Treasury yields.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488291
We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we … measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A … key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162104
rate both matter for determining inflation and economic activity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584354
We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data … from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as … inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013441601
policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks … explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013548957
do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank …'s objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size of this tradeoff depends on how flexible prices are in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013548986
, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the … inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
We discuss the concept of core inflation and its relevance for policymakers and then review a variety of approaches … displayed by U.S. inflation data and discussing conceptual issues around measurement, we provide a unified framework to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015051935