inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to … interest rates and inflation to study whether the decrease in the natural rate of interest leads to forecast densities … bound has a sizable effect on the distribution of future interest rates, its impact on forecast densities for inflation is …

. We find that for all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate of about 2 percent, there is a second … equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10 percent. Thus, the model can simultaneously account for the low and high … inflation episodes in the United States. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and …

rate both matter for determining inflation and economic activity. …

do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank …'s objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size of this tradeoff depends on how flexible prices are in the …

We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data … from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as … inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as …

central banks target inflation at a rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation … importance of appropriately accounting for a low, positive trend inflation rate for the conduct of monetary policy. We first … review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation, as well as some proposed new measures to …

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic …

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses … all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation … measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the “FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)” for CPI and …

underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for monetary policymakers for both CPI and PCE. The UIG uses a broad … data set allowing for high-frequency updates on underlying inflation. The paper complements the existing literature on U ….S. “core” measures by illustrating how UIG is used and interpreted in real time since late 2005. -- Inflation ; dynamic factor …