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, inflation, and long-term survey expectations, and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We discuss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647660
We present an affine term structure model for the joint pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and … nominal yields. Model-implied expected inflation provides a better prediction of actual inflation than breakeven inflation … crisis. -- TIPS ; inflation expectations ; affine term structure models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009624301
Order book and transactions data from the U.S. Treasury securities market are used to calculate daily measures of bid-ask spreads, depth, and price impact for a twenty-six-year sample period (1991-2017). From these measures, a daily index of Treasury market liquidity is constructed, reflecting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754283
magnitude. These effects are illustrated for three episodes: the period following the Russian default in 1998, the bond … premium ; bond risk premiums ; international spillover effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130499
rate both matter for determining inflation and economic activity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584354
We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative … easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels - risky firms just above the IG rating cutoff-enjoyed subsidized bond financing since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013161890
observable differences, including rating, financial performance, industry, bond characteristics and issuance timing. The … they necessarily less liquid. Bond investors appear to discount the value of privately held equity. The effect does not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009526824
Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data's containing revisions and released with a delays' overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009664082
characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of … observed government bond yields and survey-based expected average short rates. Our term premiums measured directly based on … rates, and uncover a number of important facts: 1) the bulk of the variation in medium- and long-term bond yields is driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222892