Similar Search Results

D'Agostino, Antonello; Modugno, Michele; Osbat, Chiara - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619965

Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times

Coenen, Günter; Ehrmann, Michael; Gaballo, Gaetano; … - 2017

Monetary policy communication is particularly important during unconventional times, because high uncertainty about the economy, the introduction of new policy tools and possible limits to the central bank 's toolkit could hamper the predictability of policy actions. We study how monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663996

The Phillips curve at the ECB

Eser, Fabian; Karadi, Peter; Lane, Philip R.; Moretti, Laura - 2020

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851

Density forecast combinations : the real-time dimension

McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2020

Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights, static and dynamic prediction pools, as well as Bayesian and dynamic model averaging. Since real-time data involves one vintage per time period and are subject to revisions, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172228

What drives export market shares? : it depends! : an empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging

Osbat, Chiara; Benkovskis, Konstantins; Bluhm, Benjamin; … - 2017

investigate the drivers of export market shares of 25 EU countries, considering a wide range of traditional indicators along with … from China have strongly affected export performance since the early 2000s. In the case of old EU Member States, investment …, quality of institutions and available liquidity to firms also appear to play a role. For the new EU Member States, labour and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011697375

Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions

McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503

The New Area-Wide Model II : an extended version of the ECB's micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector

Coenen, Günter; Karadi, Peter; Schmidt, Sebastian; … - 2018

This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928964

Household risk management and actual mortgage choice in the euro area

Ehrmann, Michael; Ziegelmeyer, Michael - 2014

Mortgages constitute the largest part of household debt. An essential choice when taking out a mortgage is between fixed-interest-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-interest-rate mortgages (ARMs). However, so far, no comprehensive cross-country study has analyzed what determines household...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235889

Interdependence between the Euro area and the US : what role for EMU?

Ehrmann, Michael (contributor); … - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001749417

Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?

Bruggeman, Annick (contributor); Donati, Paola (contributor) - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001820898