This paper studies the formation of consumers' inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socioeconomic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households'...

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds....

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

We formalize the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk. Households' desire to hedge against price volatility can generate price volatility in equilibrium, even absent fundamental risk. Fearing that asset prices may fall, risk-averse households demand safe assets...

Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis had a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and hence, spending. The...

We provide a comprehensive assessment of five monetary policy regimes-inflation targeting (IT), dual mandate (DM), average inflation targeting under 4-period (AIT-4) and 10-period (AIT-10) horizons, price level targeting (PLT), and nominal GDP level targeting (NGDP)-in a unified experimental...

This paper examines novel household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) from 2014Q4 to 2022Q1 to understand households' expectations about price and wage inflation, their respective links to views about labour market conditions and their subsequent impact on...

We propose and estimate a dynamic and individual model of expectations formation that links individual consumers’ inflation expectations to their own lagged forecasts as well as proxies for the rational expectation forecasts. The model builds on the existing rational inattention literature and...

How forward guidance influences expectations is not yet fully understood. To study this issue, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I find that, in response to a...

We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication...