This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement an overlapping-generation model in the lab where output dynamics are given by the well-known chaotic quadratic map. This model structure allows us to study previously unexplored...

Central banks in most advanced economies have reacted similarly to the increase in inflation that started in 2021. They initially looked through the rising inflation by leaving monetary policy relatively unchanged. Then, after inflation continued to increase, central banks pivoted by quickly...

How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers? We study an environment with strategic monetary-fiscal interactions where the central bank has a limited degree of commitment to follow policies over time and the fiscal authority has none. We contrast the...

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm-specific...

This paper evaluates the international spillover effects of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) using a two-country dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, and portfolio balance effects. Portfolio balance effects arise from imperfect substitution between...

This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we...

This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. The model includes two groups of households: (i) wealthier households, who own financial assets and can smooth consumption...

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...

In this paper, I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered...

Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. We find that the region of allowed...